COVID-19 Highest Incidence Forecast in Russia Based on Regression Model
Iosif Z. Aronov
Department of Commerce and Trade Regulation, MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations) University, Moscow, Russia.
Olga V. Maksimova
Department of Global Climate Stabilization Research, Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow, Russia.
Nataliia M. Galkina
Department of Trade Barriers Analysis, International Trade and Integration (ITI) Research Center, Moscow, Russia.
Received on May 08, 2020
Accepted on June 12, 2020
The authors suggest a simple regression model of COVID-19 highest incidence prognosis in Russia on the basis of the revealed correlation between the duration of coronavirus peak (plateau) and air traffic volume. The study base included 37 countries in Europe, South America and Asia. Cluster analysis on the basis of the Euclidean metric for these countries showed the necessity of classifying the USA and China into a separate group, which gave grounds to exclude these countries from the analysis. In addition, Ireland was excluded from the analysis due to its special geographical location. For the remaining countries, the correlation coefficient between the number of airline passengers and the duration of the epidemic before reaching its peak was 0,87, which shows a high level of linear relationship between these indicators. Point forecast for the highest incidence in Russia by regression line falls on the 4th of May. The forecast interval with confidence levelγ=0.9 is ±14 days from the calculated date. The one-way analysis of variance showed that from April 22 to May 2, there was a slowdown in the growth rates of the diseased, which indicates an exit to the plateau.
Keywords- COVID-19, Regression model, Forecast, Peak (plateau).
Aronov, I. Z., Maksimova, O. V., & Galkina, N. M. (2020). COVID-19 Highest Incidence Forecast in Russia Based on Regression Model. International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences, 5(5), 812-819. https://doi.org/10.33889/IJMEMS.2020.5.5.063.
Conflict of Interest
The authors confirm that there is no conflict of interest to declare for this publication.
The authors sincerely thank anonymous reviewers and the Editor-in-Chief for providing critical comments and suggestions for improving the quality of the paper.
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