International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences

ISSN: 2455-7749

Systematic Human Reliability Analysis (SHRA): A New Approach to Evaluate Human Error Probability (HEP) in a Nuclear Plant

Systematic Human Reliability Analysis (SHRA): A New Approach to Evaluate Human Error Probability (HEP) in a Nuclear Plant

Gianpaolo Di Bona
Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, Italy.

Domenico Falcone
Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, Italy.

Antonio Forcina
Department of Engineering, University of Naples “Parthenope”, Napoli, Italy.

Luca Silvestri
Department of Engineering, University “Niccolò Cusano”, Roma, Italy.

DOI https://doi.org/10.33889/IJMEMS.2021.6.1.022

Received on May 31, 2020
Accepted on August 21, 2020


Emergency management in industrial plants is a fundamental issue to ensure the safety of operators. The emergency management analyses two fundamental aspects: the system reliability and the human reliability. System reliability is the capability of ensuring the functional properties within a variability of work conditions, considering the possible deviations due to unexpected events. However, system reliability is strongly related to the reliability of its weakest component. The complexity of the processes could generate incidental situations and the worker appears (human reliability) to be the weakest part of the whole system. The complexity of systems influences operator’s ability to take decisions during emergencies. The aim of the present research is to develop a new approach to evaluate human error probability (HEP), called Systematic Human Reliability Analysis (SHRA). The proposed approach considers internal and external factors that affect operator’s ability. The new approach is based on Nuclear Action Reliability Assessment (NARA), Simplified Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability (SPAR-H) and on the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) relationship. The present paper analysed some shortcomings related to literature approaches, especially the limitations of the working time. We estimated HEP, after 8 hours (work standard) during emergency conditions. The correlations between the advantages of these three methodologies allows proposing a HEP analysis during accident scenarios emergencies. SHRA can be used to estimate human reliability during emergencies. SHRA has been applied in a nuclear accident scenario, considering 24 hours of working time. The SHRA results highlight the most important internal and external factors that affect operator’s ability.

Keywords- Human factors, Environmental factors, Human reliability analysis, Human error probability, Performance shaping factors, Nuclear plant.


Bona, G. D., Falcone, D., Forcina, A., & Silvestri, L. (2021). Systematic Human Reliability Analysis (SHRA): A New Approach to Evaluate Human Error Probability (HEP) in a Nuclear Plant. International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences, 6(1), 345-362. https://doi.org/10.33889/IJMEMS.2021.6.1.022.

Conflict of Interest

The authors confirm that there is no conflict of interest to declare for this publication


Authors express their sincere thanks to: the company operating in the nuclear industry and the authors really appreciate the effort of editors and referees in reviewing manuscript.


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