Irina Vladimirovna Osinovskaya
Industrial University of Tyumen, Volodarsky, 38, 625000, Tyumen, Russian Federation.

DOI https://doi.org/10.33889/IJMEMS.2026.11.4.070

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Abstract

The article examines the fuel and energy balance (FEB) as a tool for systemic management of all economic subsystems that influence the formation of the energy balance structure. The goal of the study is to develop a conceptual model for generating a forecast FEB, ensuring full alignment of fuel and energy sectors with macroeconomic targets by selecting the most effective management decisions at the national, regional, and district levels. A distinctive feature is the rationale for a multi-criteria assessment of the impact of management decisions in the fuel and energy sector and related sectors on the structural parameters of the forecast FEB. This will enable a quantitative analysis of the impact of alternative management decisions (program measures) on the key elements of the forecast FEB. This article presents a mathematical model for calculating the integral value of a structural gap in individual FEB subsystems caused by a specific decision option or set of program measures. It also presents a developed mathematical model for calculating the integral indicator of structural changes in FEB subsystems caused by the implementation of specific management decisions or development programs.

Keywords- Fuel and energy balance, Forming, System, Programs, Goals, Structure, Strategy, Energy security.

Citation

Osinovskaya, I. V (2026). A Multi-criteria Model for Structural Gap Assessment in the Forecast Fuel and Energy Balance: A Systemic Management Approach. International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences, 11(4), 1718-1742. https://doi.org/10.33889/IJMEMS.2026.11.4.070.